中国“一带一路”政策对周围邻国有何影响？

RT2大陆桥物流联盟

来源：福布斯RT2大陆桥物流联盟

作者：本·辛芬德费尔 | 香港丝绸之路战略咨询公司创始人RT2大陆桥物流联盟

译/徐笑音  校/陈岳林RT2大陆桥物流联盟

中国“一带一路”政策对周围邻国有何影响？RT2大陆桥物流联盟

关于中国的“一带一路”政策已经有了大量报道，该政策本身其实是引导中国与近邻开展商业合作、发展政治互信的一个使命宣言。这是眼下发生的真正重要的事。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

而该政策的影响差异明显。过去12个月里，我去过哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦和阿联酋的一些城市，也到过亚洲其他国家，与当地实业家和中国企业主聊过该政策对商业活动有何影响。各人的说法不一，很明显该政策的影响将因国家不同而存在巨大差异。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

哈萨克斯坦的情况展现了该政策的复杂性。作为中国的一个近邻，以及所谓丝绸之路经济带的一部分，哈萨克斯坦应该是第一批感受到该政策影响的国家之一。我的当地接待是一个中国人，他很肯定地说，过去6个月期间，他已经接待了约30个来自中国的省级或市级代表团。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

然而，近来在哈萨克斯坦呆过一周之后，我对该政策迄今为止所产生的效果感到失望，即便它可能具有重大的长期影响。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

不要期待中国商人会涌上丝绸之路RT2大陆桥物流联盟

很多人认为，受该政策影响，中国商人将涌入丝绸之路经过的各个市场，我当然也去过一些处于该经济带上的大型中国社区。就拿迪拜来说，据可靠估计，那里的中国人口竟有12万之多。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

但在哈萨克斯坦可不是这样。我花了几天时间，参观了阿拉木图的几个商业市场，只发现了几个中国商人——据他们说这是因为很难弄到工作签证。事实上，很多人持的是学生签证，但花在市场里的时间比花在教室里的还要多。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

这非常重要，因为突显出这不是一个“有部署的”发展。如果“一带一路”产生真正的商业影响，中国公司将发现自己更常与当地合作方共事，而非自带完整的供应链和劳动力。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

不是每一个人都对“一带一路”感到欢欣鼓舞RT2大陆桥物流联盟

对于东亚人来说，很容易关注中国的形势变化，不仅如此，他们还想当然地认为世界其他地方的人也是一样，尤其在看待“一带一路”这样的重大政策时。实际情况是，世界很多地方对中国的这项新战略从未有所耳闻。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

这里又要举哈萨克斯坦的例子。该国政治领导层非常在意与中国的商业合作。然而，就我的体会来看，很难找到既意识到该政策又明白其对自己国家潜在意义的企业高管。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

这不是批评，只是反映了一个事实：总的来说，商界对俄罗斯和欧洲做出的决策更加敏感。也许，随着低油价迫使哈萨克斯坦寻找新的经济增长来源，这种状况将有所改变。但就目前来说，“一带一路”不是他们首要关注的东西。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

但该政策仍将有利于哈萨克斯坦RT2大陆桥物流联盟

什么能够改变哈萨克斯坦对“一带一路”的认识？中国在该国基础设施方面的潜在投资。我所对话的高管们通常认为对该国各大城市以外的二级路网进行投资十分重要，更不用说铁路方面的投资了。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

这对中国发起的亚洲基础设施投资银行（简称亚投行）来说可是一大良机，该银行正在该地区寻找可投资的项目。对于那些擅长在国内以及全球各新兴市场修建公路的中国公司来说，这同样是一个绝佳的机会。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

然而，要提醒的是：哈萨克斯坦只有1,700万人口，与一个中国大城市的规模相当。机会有限，不够30个省级或市级代表团个个都吃饱。有些人将失望地空手而归。RT2大陆桥物流联盟

Source: ForbesRT2大陆桥物流联盟

Contributor: Ben Simpfendorfer | the founder of Silk Road Associates, a strategic consultancy based in Hong KongRT2大陆桥物流联盟

How China's Silk Road Policy Is Shaping Up In Neighboring CountriesRT2大陆桥物流联盟

A lot has been written about China’s One Belt One Road policy, but the policy itself is little more than a mission statement to guide the country’s commercial and political engagement with its near neighbors. It’s what happens on the ground that really matters.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

It’s also where the differences become apparent. Over the past 12 months, I have visited cities in Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and the UAE, as well as other countries across Asia, speaking with local industrialists and Chinese business owners about how the policy is impacting commercial activity. The stories are mixed and it is clear that the policy’s effects will differ widely by country.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

The situation in Kazakhstan demonstrates the policy’s complexities. As a near neighbor of China, and part of the so-called ‘Belt’, the country should be among the first to feel the policy’s impact. My local Chinese fixer certainly claimed he had received some 30 municipal- and provincial-level Chinese delegations to the country during the past six months.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

Yet, after recently spending a week in Kazakhstan, I was left feeling underwhelmed by the policy’s impact thus far, even if the long-term changes may yet be significant.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

Don’t expect Chinese workers to flood the Silk RoadRT2大陆桥物流联盟

It’s popular to assume that Chinese traders will flood the Silk Road’s markets as a result of the policy, and I’ve certainly visited some large Chinese communities around the region. Just consider Dubai where the Chinese population is reliably estimated at a huge 120,000.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

But this isn’t the case in Kazakhstan. I spent days touring Almaty’s commercial markets and struggled to find more than a handful of Chinese traders–because of their claimed difficulty getting work visas. Many are in fact on student visas but spend more time in the market than the classroom.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

That’s important as it underscores that this won’t just be a ‘boots on the ground’ development. If One Belt One Road is to have real commercial implications, Chinese firms will find themselves more often working with local partners rather than bringing their entire supply-chain and workforce with them.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

Not everyone is excited about One Belt One RoadRT2大陆桥物流联盟

For those of us in East Asia, it’s easy to be obsessed by what happens in China. It’s also easy to assume that the rest of the world is, too, especially when looking at a policy change as big as One Belt One Road. The reality is that there are large parts of the world that have never even heard of China’s new strategy.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

Kazakhstan is again a case in point. Its political leadership care very much about China’s commercial engagement. Still, in my experience, it is hard to find business executives there who are either aware of the policy or understand its potential implications for the country.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

That’s not criticism. It’s simply a reflection of the fact that the business sector is more sensitive to decisions taken in Russia and in Europe, in general. Maybe that will change as low oil prices force the country to look for new sources of economic growth. But for now, OBOR is low priority.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

But the policy will still be good for KazakhstanRT2大陆桥物流联盟

What could change perceptions around OBOR? China’s potential investment in the country’s infrastructure. The executives I spoke to most often argued that investment in the country’s secondary road network outside the major cities is critical, not to mention investment in railways.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

That’s a perfect opportunity for the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), as it scours the region for projects to fund. It is also an ideal opportunity for those Chinese companies that have excelled in building roads at home and in emerging markets around the world.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

There is a caveat, however. Kazakhstan has a population of just 17 million people, making it the same size as a single large Chinese city. There simply aren’t enough opportunities for each of those 30 municipal- and provincial-level delegations. Some will leave the country disappointed.RT2大陆桥物流联盟

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